Fertiliser availability this season will depend not only on global production, but on the ability of the supply chain to move product through ports, storage, processing and transport networks in time for spring applications.
That is the message from the Farming Fertiliser Stakeholder Group, which is encouraging farmers to begin discussions with suppliers early, even where final crop areas, nutrient requirements and purchasing decisions have yet to be confirmed.
The warning highlights an often-overlooked aspect of agricultural supply: physical logistics can become a constraint even when sufficient product exists elsewhere in the market.
Fertiliser can pass through several stages before reaching a farm. Depending on the product and supply route, this can include overseas production, shipping, port handling, storage, blending, bagging, loading and road transport.
Each stage has finite capacity.
A late increase in demand therefore cannot necessarily be accommodated simply by bringing forward more product. If large numbers of farms place orders within a narrow period, demand for storage, processing equipment, loading facilities, vehicles and drivers can increase simultaneously.
For spring nitrogen, the problem is particularly acute because the application window is relatively short. A delivery that arrives after the crop requires the nutrient may have little practical value.
The supply-chain challenge is more significant this year because international fertiliser markets are operating against a background of geopolitical disruption. The continuing effects of the war in Ukraine, sanctions and restrictions affecting Russian-origin products and raw materials have altered established trade flows.
Disruption in the Gulf region is also affecting global nitrogen markets and the supply chains for natural gas, ammonia, urea and sulphur. Even where UK supply is not directly dependent on a particular source, changes in global trading patterns can increase competition for alternative cargoes.
From a farm-management perspective, early engagement does not necessarily mean purchasing the entire requirement immediately. Instead, it provides suppliers with better information about potential demand and allows logistics to be planned before the main spring delivery period.
Suppliers are also reportedly considering split and part-load deliveries, including coordination between neighbouring farms, as a way of spreading transport demand and reducing additional haulage costs.
Farmers can also use the planning period to review soil-test results, expected yields, cropping plans and nutrient requirements before committing to products.
The wider lesson is that fertiliser availability needs to be considered as a logistics issue as well as a commodity issue. Product may exist within the wider market, but timely delivery depends on sufficient capacity at every stage between production and the farm gate.
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